NIGERIA BRACES FOR A CHALLENGING 2024: UNVEILING THE IMPENDING SCARCITY, FAILURES, AND CHAOS
INTRODUCTION:
No year is identical in a nation's history, and 2024 in Nigeria is poised to be defined by three overarching themes: SCARCITY, FAILURE, and CHAOS.
SCARCITY OUTLOOK:
2024 kicks off with cash scarcity, a fallout from a problematic currency change earlier in the year. Anticipate shortages in foreign exchange, food, manufactured goods, drugs, jobs, university staff, and housing. This scarcity is a breeding ground for inflation, potentially surpassing 30%, contrary to budget expectations.
GOVERNMENT CREDIBILITY CRISIS:
Nigerians face a credibility gap with their leaders, eroding trust since 1960. Deceptive practices persist, undermining faith in governance, a critical element for social, economic, and political progress.
FUEL SUBSIDY CONFUSION:
The removal of fuel subsidies is shrouded in ambiguity. Conflicting statements from government officials, the World Bank, and marketers create uncertainty. Forecasts indicate a likely return of fuel subsidies, leading to potential chaos.
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES IN 2024:
1. Budget Realism: The 2024 budget, already facing a 23% decline in constant dollars from 2023, is unlikely to be implemented due to external events beyond the government's control.
2. Crude Revenue Challenges: Global oil dynamics threaten Nigeria's revenue, hindering development and exacerbating deficits.
3. Fuel Supply and Price Uncertainty: Despite efforts, uncertainty in fuel supply and prices persists, impacting planning and potentially leading to subsidy reinstatement or prices exceeding N1000/litre.
4. Devaluation and Inflation: Unforeseen currency devaluation and deficit spending may push inflation above 30%, exacerbating scarcities.
MANUFACTURING, INVESTMENTS, AND UNEMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES:
Expect manufacturing decline, foreign airlines' departure, decreased foreign direct investment (FDI), escalating debt burdens, and a bleak employment scenario with over 20,000 jobs lost.
POWER SUPPLY WOES:
Power supply remains a hurdle for economic progress, with no significant improvement in the 2024 budget, signaling persistent challenges.
SECURITY LANDSCAPE:
Rising challenges include banditry, kidnapping, illicit drugs, cyber-crimes, and a concerning trend of political assassinations and weaponization of building demolitions.
EXTERNAL FACTORS:
Global events like the Hamas-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine crisis may have repercussions on Nigeria, affecting trade relations and security.
CONCLUSION:
Nigerians are urged to brace for an exceptionally challenging year in 2024, with government propaganda likely attempting to counter the grim realities. Transparency remains crucial as the nation navigates through unprecedented difficulties.
STOP PRESS:
Cash scarcity, as predicted by VANGUARD, disrupts the Yuletide season, extending into the New Year, leaving the Central Bank of Nigeria in a state of confusion.
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